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COVID-19 Second Wave ! Dangerous Mutant !

The second wave of COVID-19 cases in India and particularly Maharashtra appears to be quicker than the primary wave. However, the sharper spike is often attributed to the upper testing levels within the second wave compared to the primary. In the graphs, days taken for a get number of cases within the second wave are compared with the times taken for an identical number of cases within the first wave. The number of COVID-19 tests conducted during the two time periods was also analyzed.

Image - The Hindu

Last time, it had taken 23 days for India to maneuver from 30,000 cases each day to 60,000. And, at that time, in July and August last year, there was a far greater number of susceptible people who could have been infected. After infecting a critical proportion of the population, the spread of the epidemic is expected to slow down. This critical proportion is not necessarily 50 percent. The slowdown can occur even after 30 or 40 percent of the population has been infected. This is due to the corresponding reduction in the number of uninfected people that can potentially get infected.

States like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have just begun to show the surge. Apart from Maharashtra and Kerala, the 2 states that have reported quite 10,000 cases during a day, are Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh. Tamil Nadu’s peak is at 7,000. Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have started reporting about 2,000 cases a day now, after seeing their daily counts drop to less than 500 in February.

The only bright side during this second wave is that a majority of the cases which are reported aren't critical. Incidentally, the number of fatalities has been on the decline as well with the exception being February.

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